Wednesday, January 9, 2013

Oscar Nominee Predictions for 2012 Movie Year

One of the geekier things that hard-core movie lovers try to do each year is predict the annual Oscar nominees. Here are my predictions in the six major categories.

Best Picture:

The MPAAS has a convoluted system in selecting best picture nominees.  No one knows how many nominees there will be. There could be as few as five nominees or as many as ten. Last year, which was the first year that this system was used, there were 9 nominees. I am going to select ten potential nominees. At the very least, that gives me a greater chance to predict correctly if there are fewer than 10. In all honesty, though, I only think seven are sure things. I denoted the other three long shots with an asterisk.

Beasts of the Southern Wild*
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Moonrise Kingdom*
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

Best Director:

Ben Affleck, Argo
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty.
Tom Hooper, Les Miserables
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained

Tarantino was not included in the five the Directors Guild nominees for 2012. Ang Lee was nominated instead for Life of Pi. I am not sensing great affection for Life of Pi, but Tarantino may be too edgy for an Oscar nomination this year. Another possibility is David O Russell for Silver Linings Playbook.

Best Actor:

Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook,
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight

A nomination for John Hawkes for The Sessions in place of Phoenix would not surprise me.

Best Actress:

Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Naomi Watts, The Impossible

A nomination of either Helen Mirren for Hitchcock for Quvenzhane Wallis for Beasts of the Southern Wild is possible in place of Riva.

Best Supporting Actor:

Alan Arkin, Argo
Javier Bardem, Skyfall
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

A nomination for either Christoph Waltz, Leonardo DiCaprio, or Samuel L Jackson for Django Unchained is possible in place of either Bardem or De Niro.

Best Supporting Actress:

Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy
Maggie Smith, Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Amy Adams in The Master could be a spoiler for either Nicole Kidman or, more likely, Maggie Smith.

And there you have it. We will see how I did in about 8 hours.

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